Risk Assessment - UKCIP
The approach used here for assessing risk for climate change is based on the UKCIP adaptation tool (www.ukcip.org.uk) framework, and is supplemented with different methods and resources that can be used to achieve the outcomes for each step. It is noted that there are many alternative frameworks that are similarly based on ISO 31000.
The UKCIP tool uses a five step process to help assess organisational vulnerability to current climate and future climate change, develop and implement an adaptation strategy that can address key climate risks.
UKCIP's five steps are:
Assessing the current climate vulnerability;
Assessing future climate vulnerability;
Adaptation options analysis; and
Monitoring and review.
Step 1: Getting Started
This determines the scope of the analysis and the objectives of the process. Critical elements are getting the team together with effective organisational buy in.
New Zealand Key Resources
Step 2: Current climate vulnerability
This step addresses determining the vulnerability of the organisation, it considers:
Exposure to climate hazards,
Sensitivity to climate variability and
Organisational adaptive capacity.
Current vulnerability can be addressed by analysing impacts of past weather events across the business and supply change.
(The CCII reports are currently being developed, as at Jan 2017)
Step 3: Future climate vulnerability
This step develops the understanding on the projected future changes in climate and the impacts and the priority list of risks to your business and the uncertainty associated within them. The priorities identify the critical risks that need adaptation action. While the UKCIP has climate data as well as a weather generator, such data sources are not available on-line in NZ.
Data: As part of the CCII (www.ccii.org.nz) NIWA generated daily, monthly climate projection data for every 5km square over NZ. This climate data is derived at four RCP levels using 6 different regional climate models. (Details are here)
Step 4: Adaptation options
This step addresses how to reduce vulnerability through two forms of action, the first focuses on building the institutional capacity to address climate change, and the second are the practical actions that reduce impact and sensitivities such as risk transfer (e.g. insurance); elimination of the impact e.g. through moving location; or methods to minimise the impacts or exposure. A further mindset is to exploit any new opportunities that maybe less sensitive to climate change.
Adaptation can be addressed within a strategic planning cycle of looking at tactical, strategic and transformation adaptation strategies. This is the approached used in the NZ review of climate change and adaptation options for the primary sectors (see the sidebar report).
Step 5: Monitoring and review
Reducing the vulnerability of organisations to climate change requires constant review as the future is changing, knowledge typically is improving and other options are being revealed.